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♪ liz: countdown to the countdown. as records continue to fall, our stocks the only game in town? the hedge fund manager taking it from zero to 80 billion gives you his best money making ideas. john brynjolfsson exclusively with us. venezuelan hugo chavez is on. what will that mean for his local oil prices? what is the trade? s&p capitalize director pinpoints how to pick the winners. the countdown starts right now. ♪ liz: good afternoon, everybody.

i am liz claman. it is the last hour of trading. another record for the dow. after we got the facebook indicator from from the federal reserve. a positive adp employment reports more workers than expected. market watchers, as you see on the screen as they look at these records once again, spinning forward to friday when the labor department releases the february jobs report. let take a look at the s&p. the nasdaq which has been down earlier is up about two points. we have the russell 2000 of a third of a percent today. in terms of sectors, we has the money flowing into financials. bank of america moving higher. not that it off.

citigroup is up after raising the price target on the stock from $47 to $49. goldman bringing up the rear. up one and a quarter percent, solidly in the green. first solar placing higher by four and a quarter percent. raymond james upgrading. warren buffett owns a stake in one of their projects over at first solar. look at staples getting ripped. fiscal 2013 earnings will come in below analyst estimates. investors hate that right now. you have ebay down 2.5%. the internet auctioneers slowed in february as consumers cut back in spending. no more used showerheads at the moment on ebay. no, they have them, people are

just not buying them. not quite the fireworks that we had yesterday, but the dow continues to write history hitting yet another all-time high. does that mean maybe the s&p 500 will soon hit an all-time high? will you feel better if you see the s&p make high? >> i will start to feel better. we have been very cautious about the dow hitting an all-time high. it is kind of a bizarre behavior. sectors and stocks are leading higher than what you would normally see. once we close above the february high, there is nothing to stop

us from getting up to the 1560 level. i think we need to pull back a little bit. i think it is taking the cake. we will get there. liz: 1543. i am interested to see if anything close to that comes to pass. what happened when the numbers came out? we loved on the leads here. liz: didn't bother you that the sublessor cuts may start to work

psychologically in a negative way when it comes to hiring? >> certainly, it is there. the stocks are feeling the tax hikes. the sequester is less. it will be interesting to see what they do. liz: interesting. looking at the energy sector right now. again, it did not do much to make a bullish case. if this was ten years ago, the market definitely would have made a vital move in one direction or the other. we have gotten below that. we have tested the handle and

from here 89.5 seemed like a decent number today. i think the market will be comfortable here right around $90. liz: way to go on a limb. we love to beat up on you. [ laughter ] liz: good to see all of you. thank you so much. two investors have the all clear signal to buy? why not ask the man who launched one of the most successful of all time. john brynjolfsson help build the fund taking it from zero to 80, as an $80 billion. good to have you. not only do i want to know what you were doing yesterday, but what start you are doing a year ago. where were you bullish a year ago in the face of bigoted

headlines? >> high yield. high-yield spreads were -- yields were about 10%. liz: that was a great that for you. did you really believe we would see what we are seeing? >> ultimately, i see the risks return much better. to some extent, the economy -- as long as things keep going well, things are fine. suddenly, if things start unraveling in terms of exit strategy, then you have a rather sharp the client. we are positioned for a sharper decline.

liz: eda said we are positioned for one or the other. how do you position for the moment where the federal reserve just can't take it anymore? how do you position your portfolio for that? >> i do not want to be the last person out the door. i want to be at the front of that exit line. that would involve a sharp rise in interest rates. the fed owns a huge amount of long-term treasuries. the treasury, meanwhile, is trying to issue long-term treasuries. liz: you are short the 30, are you short the ten? >> no. we would not be short the ted. we may even belong to ten. even the five-year right now looks pretty attractive. people will be looking forward.

liz: let me get to yesterday. as he watched the dow finally hit an all-time high after five years of an all-time grime, fingers bloody climbing back up that wall, what were you buying? >> ultimately, it sold off, risk on high-yield still works. now we are trading much more tactically. we will buy the individual issues we like. we will have that put on the s&p. offsetting that stress case scenario. liz: can you guide our investors a little bit? are there particular names out there that you really like? >> i have one of the best traders in the country. he spent five years at penn

cove. liz: okay. tell us what mitch is doing. >> he is turning that portfolio over, literally every week, every month. liz: very active. >> our hedge fund is for $5 million. investors can only have a mutual fund. then we run one of the largest commodity funds in the world. liz: is there a minimum for that? >> i think it is about $1000. liz: what do you think about gold? >> gold and precious metals -- we have been trading that numbers is called. platinum is trading at a $200 discount to gold. that is very unusual. i think upon him as being two or three times higher than gold.

right now, platinum is about even dollar price to gold. there was a strike in south africa yesterday. it gave a little pop to find him, but still it is right in there with gold. liz: you are handling that for people. >> right. we have 24 commodities. we have exposure to all of them. we tactically trade individual clients as well. liz: we would love to have you back. john brynjolfsson. the armored wealth fund. thank you very much. closing bell ringing in about 49 minutes. doesn't it make your blood boil if you pay high fees from funds that are losing money. listen up. teaching you how to not throw good money. how to spot winners and potential losers.

that is coming up in a fox business exclusive. ♪ i'm a conservative investor. but that doesn't mean i don't want to make money. i love making money. i try to be smart with my investments. i also try to keep my costs down. what's your plan? ishares. low cost and tax efficient. find out why nine out of ten large professional investors choose ishares for their etfs. ishares by blackrock. call 1-800-ishares for a prospectus which includes investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses. read and consider it carefully before investing. risk includes possible loss of principal. thank you orville and wilb... ...amelia... neil and buzz: for proving there's nowhere we can't go.

but, at some point... giant leaps gave way to baby steps... and with all due respect, you're history. if you taught us anything, it's that you can't cling g to e past... if you want to create the future. that's why, instead of looking behind... delta is lking beyond. pushing u.s. aviation to new heights. all 80 thousand of us. busy investing billions in the industry's boldest moves. it's biggest advances technology. bringing our passengers the best, the most spacious fleet in the sky. and earning more awards than any other airline... to show for it. so rather than simply saluti history... we're out there making it.

liz: breaking news, dell is in play right now. michael dell trying to make a play and take its company private. guess what, here comes southeastern mass. management. considering whether to team up with an unnamed player to attempt a counter bid to that $1365 a share play. dell is below or just slightly above 1365. are you guys trying to take this on the cheap? guess what, now we do have a counter bid, possibly. it is unclear whether this move would alter the price of the deal, but as you can imagine, dell at the moment very volatile. some retailers are a draft today. especially american eagle.

nicole: the dow is at all-time highs. a day where the bulls are celebrating. some of the people who own these retailers are pretty annoyed today. american eagle outfitters really kicking off this trend with some tough news. more importantly, for the outlook. trying to blame, obviously, the holiday season. you have to really wonder what is going on with this teenage retailer. they say the mall traffic is not what they hoped to see. the ceo has also noted that they are going to close 15-20 stores in 2013. you have seen a lot of down arrows. back to you. liz: i am hearing a lot of noise. nicole: it is a clap off. when someone leaves, they clap.

liz: actively managed mutual funds. how do you know if you are getting enough bang for your buck? why pay 1.29% of the fee? it is a lot larger for the much cheaper. we bring in todd rosenbluth. he is s&p capital research director. we will teach everybody about a few funds that are worth it. it soaks up whatever yield or return you have gotten. >> that is true. you might as well get rewarded. there are lots of good etf's that are out there that are much cheaper.

you can pay 20 basis points in set up a 1% of 1.2% as a reference. you have to really understand what is happening with your funds and is it worth the price. liz: absolutely. you think about fancy sports cars or diamonds, but that is not the case when it comes to certain funds. the fees are just way too high on this one for your taste. teach people how not to be suckers. >> not only do need to look at the expense ratio and compared to other actively manage funds that are about 1%. this is a little bit more expensive. what also causes it to get a lower ranking is its track record. you reference a three year track record. not only below average, but to us it has been volatile. we have seen a lot of swings in the performance. volatility can be good when it is performing well. when it is not performing well and it is expensive, you really

have to decide whether or not it is appropriate for you or is it more appropriate to go into a similar fun which has a five-star ranking from s&p capital iq in a lot of different characteristics. liz: there are some things within that particular one that look very decent and certainly when you talk about those fees, delve a little bit more into this and tell people what is so good about it besides a decent return over the past year. >> the three year track return is good. that should be a good starting point for investors. it is cheaper. you are still paying up verses in etf, but less than a number of other mutual funds that are out there. the volatility is lower. it is rounded out by other

sectors. these stocks are attractive and have pretty good risk profiles. again, another good fund that is out there. five-star ranking from s&p capital iq. it is low cost and low volatility. liz: how do you smell a rat? not necessarily a raft, but a real stinker. the first thing to do is look at the three-year return. i do not care what it did year to date, what is that return over three years. at least if someone has a good track record, that is significant. >> that should be your starting point. you should not just in there, as some people may do. you need to understand what is inside of the portfolio. you need to see if you would like those stocks if they were individual securities.

liz: i want to get to and unattractive one. >> this is a fund that really had a great 2012. it was the worst performing multi- cap value fund in our uniforms in 2011. it lost a lot of money. very volatile. paying 1%. again for the longer-term track record. the last three years have been quite volatile. aig, sears, big heavyweight companies in this portfolio. when it works, it works. it did not work in 2011. it has not had that great of a start to 2013. we think of other alternatives out there. liz: todd, thank you very much.

look at those fees. should not be paying, certainly not more than 1% and ideally a little bit less. great to see you. todd rosenbluth. closing bell ringing in about 37 minutes. is a movie about white-collar crime, the wolf of wall street. that is what it is called. it is due out soon. charlie gasparino has the latest developments. ♪ ♪

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liz: so that tori is a stock swindler might make a lot of money from the upcoming movie which chronicles his white-collar crime, but will he

be able to keep any of it, charlie quest mark charlie? charlie: these were shell companies. a couple of them were real. maybe the only one, maybe one other. they were tori is for pump and dump. paying money allegedly to be one of those insiders, and the insiders would sell at a high price and the stock would fall to zero where average people were holding it. that whole thing was developed in abstract. in 1998 he was convicted of stock fraud, sentenced to 42 months in jail and forced to pay restitution now of $110 million. liz: does he have it? >> the question is since 98 has

he been able to work that off? this will be a huge movie. leonardo dicaprio, martin scorsese. i can't imagine he is getting 100 million from this movie but anything he makes from what i understand, so getting this from the u.s. attorney's office, has to go to meet the $110 million that he has on him for the rest of his life. you should ask what a deal to go to jail for 42 months given this was a huge scam. he cooperated with the government and he brought other guys down. steve madden is one of the guys who testified against. i ran into one of his top row chris, a guy in the movie played by matthew mcconaghy. i met him last week.

liz: what did you order? charlie: the chicken cutlet. it was actually pretty good. this movie started to make the rounds, a lot of people talking about it on twitter. around wall street. the big thing you hear because everybody knew him back then. this was it a bucket shop, they made a lot of money for the insiders. the big question you hear is will jordan be able to keep the money. the money was made from his book. liz: did they take his book money away? charlie: let's just say he got a decent sized advance. say $300,000. he got for the book, said he optioned the book, you can get like a million, so you still. liz: you can't profit from it. charlie: i spoke with the prosecutor last week trying to

get more details, the prosecutor is now with the eastern district, he is now with the office in the manhattan district attorney's office, one of the top guys getting the details. i wants to know how much did he pay back and what are the terms. we usually let these guys live, they don't take all of your money. sometimes you have like $110 million, which he will never payback and you keep a certain% of what you make each month. but let me tell you, he will not be able to make a lot of money off of this thing. he is teaching techniques to one of the brokers right now. liz: it worked until it didn't. charlie: it was like lying.

liz: there was the boiler room, which i love. charlie: this will be based on the real-life characters. he does not look anything like leonardo dicaprio. i met mark hanna, you could not have met two different type of people. liz: is hollywood though. let's take the whole network, we will all go. you are stuck with us. so i hear. charlie: you are stuck with me. liz: the closing bell ringing in 28 minutes. the death of venezuelan strongman hugo chavez raising more questions than answers for the oil market. chavez with others nationalizing what they worked so hard to build and their own countries oil company, to th could the deh

open of the venezuelan oil market and actually be a positive? and what is the impact on world supply? next in a fox business exclusive read she's always been able to brighten your day.

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>> good afternoon, i'm sandra smith with your fox business brief. a mixed day on wall street with the blue chips on track to close a recorat a record high for a sd straight day. the dow jones gusto average of 41 points, the nasdaq tech stocks in the red down for. according to the demand growth

in emerging market like india and china outpacing expected supply. expected to climb in oil prices will be a volatile one. the sudden change in supply and demand having a large effect in the short term. general motors revving up the workhorse, planning to open a ford technology center in the u.s. and will hire 1000 workers to support the in-house resources. gm undergoing a restructuring of the operations with systems in efforts to become more productive. now we continue our "countdown to the closing bell" with liz claman. liz: here is an interesting nugget, there are four stocks up on double the average volume. let's go to nicole picking out the millions of shares in volume trading. >> thousands of stocks trading officially hit the new york stock exchange, we look at the ones that are extremely busy trading on heavy volume.

these guys crack me up. stop right now. reaching a level of delirium. that one is a winner up 6%. this is the area we have verafon. an annual high, and up about 10% on an upgrade. a couple of pieces. also, jci at a 52-week high, and tibco on the analyst adjustment. back to you. liz: i would expect it out of the gray wolf guys, but the barclays guys? we love the barclays guys. thank you very much, nicole petallides. hugo chavez is dead.

venezuela was one of the founding members of opec. it leaves venezuela and the massive oil industry in uncertain territory. the national oil production dropped 25%, he fired 18,000 workers at once, debt climbed to more than $30 billion. he fired them because they struck. what does his death mean for oil worldwide? what is the trade? joining me now, mark maki. good to have you here. let's explain right away, you go to all kinds of transportation, as in the pipelines moving up and down, north dakota, alberta, manitoba, all of these efforts and you have how much incapacity? >> as you look at our system, the mainline which basically runs from western canada down

through the western provinces through the great lake states in the u.s. roughly 2.5, 2.3 million barrels on that system depends on what is moving through the system at any one point in time. the heavier the crude, the less the capacity. very major construction projects underway to expand that court or to move more oil sands, more from north dakota and the midwest all the way down to the gulf coast of the u.s. and other areas. liz: what was your gut reaction when you saw hugo chavez had died? he took away, american companies have they go a lot of major indy fair. >> he was a huge figure in venezuela without question. if you look at the wealth venezuela has in terms of oil resources, it is incredible. the canadians are very modest to

put themselves number three. they could be number one. there is a tremendous opportunity in venezuela for companies willing to take the lead. liz: are you looking? >> we have operated in north america, that is our home base. if you look at the opportunities we have in the u.s., there is plenty happening here at home. liz: conventional wisdom would get people thinking if they had the saudi arabia, the oil prices would be gyrating a bit, there would be concerned. we hit near 52-week lows today, what is your best guess on the price of oil this year? there is way more supply and usage is going down. >> that is a great point. if you look at consumption of crude oil across the globe, north america has been flat for a couple of years, in fact on a slow decline with growth in china, asia, india, that is

where the market will see growth. as far as north america goes, the tremendous advantage the u.s. enjoys a great relationship with canada somewhat when you look at prices more insulated against the world market. i think your thesis like something that could happen in saudi arabia, absolutely important. liz: what is your best guess for the price of oil this year? >> i think it stays between the 90-100 barrels. liz: you have what, an $8 billion project, growth project you hope by 2016, your market cap is 8 billion, already 6 billion in debt, i get worried about a company like that. >> as a relationship upstairs with the canadian, a market cap of $35 billion, a player in the energy space in canada, so it is

the general partner, the sponsor of that. historically. liz: they are backing you guys. >> they are, they take good care of investing alongside us in major projects, that is the expectations. liz: your dividend, 7.9%, can you continue at that pace? >> our assets from the oil sands resource into the u.s. and that is sustainable for the long run. hundreds of years of supply. so we suspect we will be able to gradually increase our total overtime, we will continue good yield to our investors. liz: a lot of people in canada say it is all very nice to take a huge amount of energy to extract a single barrel of oil.

>> it is a very intensive process, one of the higher cost resources in the world but also wanted more secure resources in the world and you couldn't ask ias far as u.s. is concerned for a better trading partner then canada. liz: mark maki, thank you very much. the closing bell ringing in 15 minutes. the dow hitting a record high again today. the s&p seems to be heading in the same direction not quite there yet, so now what? do you load up on stocks or is it time to sell? like bill fleckenstein said yesterday. look for that interview, lot of people talking about that yesterday. up next, saying to buy. what he calls must own stocks next. alec, for this mission i upgraded your smart phone. ♪

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yes i did. investor. yeah, ibut i'm a busy guy.or it used to be easier but now there are more choices than ever. i want to know exactly what i am investing in. i want to know exactly how much i'm paying. i want to use the same stuff the big guys use. find out why nine out of ten large professional investors choose ishares for their etfs. ishares by blackrock. call 1-800-ishares for a prospectus which includes investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses. read and consider it carefully before investing. risk includes possible loss of principal.

liz: off the record highs earlier today, up more than 67 points, but right now still a a record for the dow jones industrials as we approach the close about 10 minutes away, but nobody is really jumping around getting too excited. i don't know what has happened. which is stocks can you still buy with guaranteed upside? is there anything guaranteed? joining me now with his must own stocks. nothing guaranteed, obviously. >> obviously not. again, we feel very constructive about the marketplace, nothing is guaranteed as we both know. liz: there is a pretty good shot type of stocks. how do you pick them?

>> would look at a variety of factors, we look at excellent management teams, big opportunities, big markets that are open, potential consolidation and look for a little bit of a different tone so you will see a revaluation that could potentially be valued at a much higher multiple. liz: expanding markets, industry consolidation, those are big issues as well. >> absolutely. software service, you and i have talked about that before. the changes that companies opening up opportunities to some of the non-bank opportunities. and again, those are expanding markets that used to be dominated by much larger players constricted because they cannot play there anymore. liz: i'm going to assume you feel 2013 will give what, double digit percentage return?

speak i think we've seen for the first time cash flows into equity mutual funds that we haven't seen for a time, the market getting slightly better, employment getting slightly better and the u.s. economy being better in the rest of the world. that still plays out and even though we are two months into the year, we have seen a bigger right already. i do think the market is going up double digits. liz: always heard was the chorus of people telling us that he reasons why the market wouldn't do well, and now there is still negativity, right? you still hear potential risks, what are the potential risks you see that you believe are truly real. >> let's not be pollyanna and say the market is rose-colored glasses. there are some that are well known. there is a sequence that continues to be overhanging,

spain and italy every once in a while, china slowing down every once in a while, news out of venezuela. disruptions in the middle east, there is always something that we don't predict. i look ever like every single de news, the deb death clock rollip and down, certain things going on spooking the investor and yet every day we make new highs, and that is interesting. liz: let's get to your picks now. it is a real estate investment trust with a pretty healthy dividend, what makes you think you can even attack in anything? >> it has had a big move, it is at 52-week high. it is the best play in the residential mortgage space that used to be dominated by big banks but they are a big player,

they are very well known in california, the first securitization in a tough market in 2008, 2009 timeframe. liz: you like hf, but i want to skip forward. customer service. you say this is business intelligence in the cloud. a 29% over the past year. something that has it that sho short. >> part of it is blamed on the quick rise, part of it blamed on the multiple but this is the best play on the theme of cloud that we cover, and salesforce has always had a large short interest.

the new software model, the best at it. the umbrella market cap can tell you how it can be. they're the best at what they do, it will always be expensive stock, expensive at 150. it is that good of a company. liz: big thumbs up for that one. good to see you, thank you so much. >> thank you, appreciate it. liz: anytime. the closing bell ringing in five minutes. check it out, another record high, while it is off of the highs of the day, a new high nonetheless. rewriting history as we speak. you have to stick around. i'm coming right back.

♪music plays thank you orville and wilbur... ...amelia... neil and buzz: for proving there's nowhere we can't go. but, at some point... giant leaps gave way to baby steps... and with all due respect, you're history. if you taught us anything, it's that you can't cling to the past... if you want to create the future. that's why, instead of looking behind... delta is looking beyond.

pushing u.s. aviation to new heights. all 80 thousand of us. busy investing billions in the industry's boldest moves. it's biggest advances in technology. bringing our passengers the best, the most spacious fleet in the sky. and earning more awards than any other airline... to show for it. so rather than simply saluting history... we're out there making it. bob will retire when he's 153, which would be fine if bob were a vampire. but he's not. ♪ he's an architect with two kids and a mortgage. luckily, he found someone who gave him a fresh perspective on hisortfolio. and with some planning and effort, hopefully bob can retire at a more appropriate age. it's not rocket science. it's just common sense.